Don't Overthink the NFL Draft
Sports journalism rarely feels more like political reporting than around the NFL draft. This is a time when I’m reminded that a lot of reporters are really just mouthpieces for certain GMs to mess with other orgs in the headlines. Not to be a downer, but it’s a little depressing. We have this entire media industry built around A.) a rumor mill that is so clearly engineered by the actual industry, i.e. front offices, and B.) fanbases that want to believe enough of the bullshit to make the media part viable.
In much the same way that I’m critical of the Shams/Woj (RIP) archetype, I got tired of hearing from yet another NFL insider that “the phone lines are open” in Cleveland or New York or Foxborough. That first one turned out to be extra true, huh? You mean to tell me that they might listen to offers? An NFL front office? Whose entire job is making deals, even if they aren’t always that good at it? You don’t say!
We call it a surprise when things happen like Jaxson Dart falling past the Saints at No. 9, or the Jaguars trading up for Travis Hunter at No. 2, or Jalon Walker falling to the Falcons at No. 14, or the Steelers not taking a QB after all, but there’s no such thing as a surprise when the received wisdom is the median mock draft. And that’s because mock drafts aren’t all that reflective of any consensus among actual decision-makers in the league. Mock drafts are reflective of themselves. The only consensus they can capture is that of other mock drafts.
There are other forms of consensus though, and the Jaguars broke with it in that Travis Hunter trade. I happen to think Travis Hunter is really good, and maybe if he really is two players in one — as in a wide receiver and a cornerback — he’ll be the rare guy who’s worth it. He’s probably not, based on most available evidence, but hey. If you’re gonna take a shot at anybody, you can do worse than that dude.
But let’s not make this seem more complicated than it is. Your best bet in the draft, as established by much smarter people than me, is to throw as many darts as you can. Trade down, say economists Richard Thaler and Cade Massey. Get more picks, and thus more chances to be right. That is the unambiguously correct approach, year in, year out.
Why? Because you, NFL GM, probably don’t have much in the way of revelatory information that isn’t available to everyone else doing your job. It’s closer to what we call a “perfect market” than not, and you’d be well-advised to make your picks with that in mind.
Just don’t expect anyone to follow that advice. There’s a distinctly human dynamic that makes a certain type of guy — say, the kind of alpha male that runs an NFL front office — so certain they’re right and everyone else is wrong that they’re willing to literally stake their job on it.
And sometimes they are! Right, that is. I have no more insight than anyone else as to how the pick will turn out for Jacksonville. I would, however, hazard a guess that this is a statement move from the new GM in town, James Gladstone. You don’t trade up like that just because you think the player is good. You do it in the hopes that he becomes a star and you can hang your hat on bringing him to town. It’s not such a terrible bet! And it’s easier to come at it from that perspective.
Very human. We love that. As with all kinds of moves that happen in a pro sports franchise — or any other business — a lot of what goes down comes back to self-preservation. Fiduciary stewardship of the team is never guaranteed. It’s hard to trade down when you think you might be on the hot seat. It’s hard to execute a five-year plan when you might only have one to work with.
My boys Thaler and Massey, as far as I’m aware, are sound in their analysis. It really is about as simple as that: trade down when you can, and never, ever trade up. My other boy Gladstone disagrees, and we’re gonna be waiting a little while before we find out who takes the W on this one.
The thing is, if Gladstone is right, and Travis Hunter rocks, it probably won’t mean that Gladstone has the eye or something. Other people with a stronger grasp of the data than I — here’s to
, always a favorite around here — have made the persuasive case that there isn’t much more to the draft than luck.Much like picking stocks, a couple winners can make you look smarter than your contemporaries. But if you stick around and keep playing the odds, so to speak, you too will regress to the mean. Even the best front offices fall victim to the same trend, because that trend is long-running and agnostic to “genius” or whatever.
I couldn’t figure out the full Peyton Manning x Warren Buffett joke, so I’ll have to get back to you on that, but we can start here: there is no Oracle of Omaha! Omaha! in the NFL. And I’ll tie this back to Peyton in another way too, because this was a weird year for quarterbacks.
Typically, we see teams clamoring to take QBs who probably don’t belong in the first round. (According to the median mock draft, right? See? I just did it myself. It’s tough to get out of the habit.) This year, no such gold rush. Why is that? Why the newfound restraint?
Because I typed that out before the Giants traded back in! This stuff rarely fails, folks. He might’ve made it past No. 2, and then No. 9, but he didn’t make it past New York in the end.
And guess what that is? That’s a self-preservation pick, baby! Way, way more than in the case of Gladstone, who just got to town, both Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen are in dire need of a lifeline. Jaxson Dart presents an opportunity to save their respective asses. For those two — if you didn’t see this coming, then we must not have met — that’s a (don’t you dare, dude) Dart worth throwing.
🏈 Some other draft notes:
The Falcons exhibited some trade-up malpractice to go and get James Pearce, Jr. towards the end of the first round. They continue to be one of the weirder front offices doing it, and honestly, I kinda love their chaos.
I like Mason Graham to the Browns, and I like the trade back to get them there. Responsible! Good stuff.
I am very intrigued by Tyler Warren, who somehow feels like a very appropriate fit in Indy. You just know Ron Swanson would love this guy.
And for my adopted Bills, you’re not gonna top last year’s personality pick in Keon Coleman, but Maxwell Hairston’s close.
🏀 The Knicks are freaking everybody out around here, that’s all I know. I can’t imagine this team thought, upon trading everything to bring in Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns, would be mired in a rockfight with the Pistons just to get out of the first round. It’s not nice to dunk on the team that’s up in the series, it’s just tough to be excited about the ceiling here given what I’m looking at right now.
🏀 Also, nice to see the Grizzlies demonstrate some dignity out there last night. Scottie Pippen, Jr. almost pulled it off, in valiant pursuit of a gentlemen’s sweep. Wish I’d seen a little more of that out of Michael Porter, Jr., who’s gone missing in Denver.
🏒 And speaking of gentleman’s sweeps! Go Blues.