How the NFL Stole Christmas
And grew its heart by ~10 streaming sizes that day
This year, like last year, the NFL stole Christmas.
It was a brazen robbery in broad daylight, even bolder than the guy from Christmas with the Kranks (2004) who lies to Dewey about having kids to feed and then gets wrecked by the guy who voiced Gurgle in Finding Nemo. Despicable! Shame on you, sir.
It was so very bold that they put it smack dab on Netflix, where a bunch of well-meaning people probably went to go and stream The Merry Gentlemen. (Take it from me and Laura — either skip it or be prepared to drink heavily.)
Instead, they were met with ~8 hours of football coverage, not unlike a typical Sunday in the fall, except this programming also featured a halftime performance from friggin’ Beyonce. So yeah. The stream kings threw some money at this.
Did it work? Was the plan to get some people to subscribe on Christmas day just so they could watch these games? Maybe. We don’t have those numbers yet either, though I’d be willing to bet they snagged a couple that way.
They definitely sold a bunch of ad time, which must’ve helped offset the tidy lil $150M outlay Netflix paid to air the two games. Two games! $150M! Guess that’s football for you.
More likely, though, it was part of the company’s wider push to widen its portfolio and get people to either never cancel their existing subscriptions or downgrade to the ad-supported tier. In Netflix’s quest to become all things to all consumers, they’ve ventured into live sports.
Their biggest event was the Jake Paul-Mike Tyson event, and since that went so bufferingly, there had been concern that Netflix might blow it on Christmas. They didn’t, which is a story all its own. Remember: the NFL has stakes here, too. If fans are unhappy with the viewing experience, they’re not going to be inclined to commit to big events on streaming in the future.
Netflix did just fine, which immediately kicked off the Super Bowl on Netflix chatter, a topic we can expect to keep coming up until it almost definitely happens sometime this decade. And won’t that be something! The Merry Gentlemen and the Super Bowl. Could the rich get any richer?
As for the theft — when I was growing up, my holiday associations were Thanksgiving with football (ft. turkey legs) and Christmas with basketball (ft. Jingle Hoops). That’s still true, to some extent, but the NFL is evidently no longer satisfied with what they had.
They put a Black Friday game on Amazon Prime, which also featured the Chiefs, and they doubled down on the Christmas takeover with a (theoretically) loaded AFC playoff slate. Neither game ended up being that good, but that’s okay. They got what they wanted. They’re a Christmas sport now.
The NBA, by comparison, had a much better day of actual games. Most of them were close, for one thing. We got some late-game heroics in Lakers-Warriors and some surprising results like the Sixers over the Celtics. It was a largely successful day, and I suspect they’ll see it that way. They should. The NBA crushed last year’s ratings, pulling in about 5.2M average viewers across the slate, for their best Christmas since 2019. Good stuff.
This has been a ripe topic for discussion lately, brought by the likes of notable NBA-head Bill Simmons. Should the NBA act a little less scared of the NFL? Is this, from LeBron, the attitude they should be bringing?
I kinda think so. There’s a certain degree of reality that the NBA must acknowledge. It will probably never be as popular as the NFL, at least no time soon, and that means setting different measuring sticks. They’re not going to hit 20M+ viewers on… anything they do. And that’s okay!
There’s plenty of incentive to stick around on holidays like Christmas and keep doing your thing. I’d also co-sign two of Simmons’ thoughts on the matter: there’s no sense in the NBA trade deadline falling on Super Bowl week. They should probably move that, although their new apron system seems to have nerfed the excitement of the deadline anyhow.
And then I’m not sure that the NBA should be trying this hard to avoid Thursday Night Football either. Maybe there’s overwhelming data underpinning that decision, but it’s felt drastic from a layfan’s perspective. And is it really so bad to schedule an NBA game as safe harbor when the Thursday game, as has often been the case, ends up being terrible?
That all aside, my favorite subplot here has to do with the nature of the two sports we’re talking about. Unlike the NBA, which can afford to put their games just about whenever they want, the calendar mechanics of the NFL’s holiday plans have demanded a frankly risky schedule for some of the league’s best franchises, all of whom are (to varying degrees) Super Bowl contenders this year.
The Chiefs, Ravens, and Steelers, and Texans played three games in 11 days. The Chiefs in particular have now played on every day of the week this year other than Tuesday, which — to take a point from JJ Watt on the broadcast yesterday — is not exactly evidence of rigging it for KC.
I mean, it is favoritism — the NFL wants to put this team on TV — but they’re asking the Chiefs to actively undermine their shot at a three-peat to do so, which is… kind of crazy? Their fans will bring this up if they come up short, which will be annoying, considering how many one-score games the 15-1(!!!) Chiefs have improbably escaped with this year, but wouldn’t be unfair to point out.
Chris Jones suggests a good fix, per ESPN:
"This is one thing I'm doing this offseason is I'm going to the NFLPA especially with us having three games in a 11-day span that we're mandatory to have a late bye week," Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones said. "With our schedule, it's kind of awkward, to say the least. ... That's a conversation to have this offseason. If a team has somewhat of a schedule like that, they should get a late-season bye.”
Agreed. They should. Theirs was in Week 6, which isn’t very useful for their current slog. At least they’ll get their first-round bye, which is just as good. What I find fascinating is the difference in dynamic.
These guys are playing. There isn’t much talk of load management around these NFL teams. Even in these crazy busy periods, we’re talking about three games. NBA teams routinely play that many in four days, and back-to-backs are a big part of the reason that rest has become such a pronounced issue for the sport.
These are very different sports. It’s far more feasible to play basketball that often than it is football. What I’m saying is it may not be different enough, in terms of the wear on players’ bodies, to justify the NBA’s 82-game schedule.
Want to steer clear of football? Cut ~20 games out and start the season in January. Ramp up as the NFL ramps down. That will never, ever happen, as that’s way more broadcast and stadium revenue than the league will ever agree to part with.
But it’s on my mind as we’re again confronted with this lopsided tug of war.
Wednesday’s NFL numbers are pretty damn good. Unsurprisingly, Netflix crushed the prior streaming record, putting up numbers that would look right at home against a linear TV channel.
Case in point: these are last year’s numbers, c/o
:
The NFL did have reason to try, and they pulled it off. Netflix got in on the action, claiming roughly 25.5M average viewership for their two-game Christmas slate. And remember, they’re a streaming service. Your grandpa can’t just turn the TV on to CBS or Fox like last year, which wasn’t all that good of news for your grandpa, but it is good news for Netflix, who can now say, confidently, that they’re competitive in the live sports arena too.
The NFL’s Christmas heist is complete, if not to the exclusion of the NBA, which can’t have really been their angle anyways. In the spirit of the season, all is not lost for the basketball fans among us. They’re hangin’.
🎅 I wasn’t kidding, by the way. The Merry Gentlemen really did suck, and it really did make me go question Chad Michael Murray’s athleticism to the point where I went back and watched his basketball highlights from One Tree Hill. Again, Laura, you’re welcome. Highly recommend the dramatic passage below. Fkn filthy turnaround J:
🏀 Is Jimmy Butler on the move or not? Depends who you ask. His agent sure seems to think he is, but Pat Riley says otherwise. I don’t know who he helps the most — Golden State? Denver? LA? — and I’m skeptical that Jimmy has the juice to swing the title picture, but who knows. Proven playoff closers are hard to come by, after all.
🏈 Not to be outdone by his fellow septuagenarian, Bill Belichick, Pete Carroll says he wants the Bears job. Am I crazy if I say I kinda like it? Eberflus was a slow-motion train wreck, and while Carroll lost the room after 14 years in Seattle, I’d probably back him to rebuild the culture in Chicago.