Super Bowl LVIII Preview

And a post-mortem for the fallen Lions and Ravens

I’m not sure this constitutes a true “rematch,” in that both teams have just eight players who are still around from last time, but we’re back to the 2020 Super Bowl matchup: the San Francisco 49ers vs. the Kansas City Chiefs.

Nothing bad happened after that game, so I’m sure this bodes well for the year.

Without further ado, though, let’s begin.

The Chiefs

If there’s one thing that hasn’t changed in the last few years, it’s this: Patrick Mahomes is still Patrick Mahomes, and he’s carried a scrap-heap group of receivers back to the big one. Travis Kelce started showing his age this season, and without Tyreek Hill around, the Chiefs’ best wideout this year was rookie Rashee Rice.

From Kadarius Toney penalties to Marquez Valdez-Scantling drops, that’s bitten them a few times this year. So far, in the playoffs, it hasn’t. But it still could, and that’s at least a concern going to see the Niners in Vegas.

Lucky for them, Kelce’s looked pretty rejuvenated in the postseason. That was a vintage performance against the Ravens, and the Chiefs will need him to show up again to pull this off.

As annoying as these Chiefs have become — in an age of Kelce-on-TV overload that predated, but has absolutely been exacerbated by, the Swelce effect — they’re in dynasty territory.

They’d fit what I take to be the agreed-upon definition if they snag a third Super Bowl in what would be well inside a decade, and there’d be no good reason to think they couldn’t add another.

Steve Spagnuolo put on a masterclass of defensive coaching against the Ravens, flummoxing the league’s MVP for four quarters. For me, though, what I saw more than anything was that there is zero question who the best player in the league is today. It’s Mahomes. And if they can win this thing, he’ll be the reason why.

The 49ers

As for the Niners — you could argue the most pressure falls on head coach Kyle Shanahan, who carries a Can’t Win The Big One albatross stretching back to when he was offensive coordinator for the 2015 Falcons that lost the 28-3 Super Bowl.

The way people talk about him, you’d think he’s a disaster in the playoffs every year. But he’s made the NFC Championship four out of the last five years, and you could easily chalk up the one they missed to an injury-cursed season. He’s been extremely consistent, nearly as bankable as Andy Reid and the Chiefs on the other side of the bracket.

What he hasn’t done is won. He’s lost to these Chiefs once already, and he’s obviously at risk of losing to them again.

Brock Purdy has shown he’s a considerable upgrade over Jimmy Garoppolo, and I do think he’s got a little bit of greatness in him. But he ain’t Mahomes. Nobody is.

And that’s why, to dramatically oversimplify this game, I see it as a pretty fascinating matchup of contrasting strengths. Top to bottom, the 49ers have a much more talented team — I’d argue on both sides of the ball — than these Chiefs. That was true of Baltimore, too, of course. But it’s worth pointing out.

There are hardly any positions on the field other than QB, C, and DT where the Chiefs comfortably have the better player. Even at TE, a younger, spryer George Kittle makes it a conversation. Pro Football Focus says he’s been better, actually.

For the nerds, here are the PFF grade matchups from the good citizens of Reddit.

They’re a little hard to read, but the color-coding paints the picture. This is the Niners’ second-ranked offense versus the Chiefs’ second-ranked defense:

And this is the Chiefs’ ninth-ranked offense versus the Niners’ eighth-ranked defense:

Based on that, and a season’s worth of evidence, I’m tempted to take the Niners. But here, as always, is the thing.

A PFF grade tells you next to nothing about likely performance in one big game. Both are great, but I know I’d rather have Kelce than Kittle going into this one. He’s done it before.

To a far more dramatic degree, I’d rather have Mahomes than Purdy too. Same reason. And there’s no stat in the world that could dissuade me from that.

I think the 49ers are a better football team, and I’m betting the Chiefs disagree. Chiefs by 10.

With that all settled, it’s onto the obits!

Let’s start with the sadder of the two, which may surprise you.

The Ravens

I know. You thought it’d be Detroit, didn’t you? It’s not.

Why, you ask? How could anything be sadder than the saddest of sad sad Lions blowing a sad sad lead down the stretch?

I’ll tell you! It’s hope.

This is the first time the Lions have been legitimately competitive in a very long time. I would not have ruled them out against the Chiefs had they made it. They already beat them once this year. It wasn’t inconceivable that they might finally Team of Destiny their way to a W.

The Ravens, though. Since the Ravens drafted Lamar Jackson in 2018, they’ve made the playoffs every year other than an injury-cursed 2021 season. Jackson is 58-19 as a starter, a comparable winning percentage to Mahomes.

Even with all that success, they took a big step forward this year. PFF had both their offense and defense at #6 on the year, but other metrics, like DVOA, suggested they were historically good on both sides of the ball. They had the league’s best point differential and they destroyed every good team they played, including an absolute beatdown of the 49ers. They had the league’s top scoring defense and the first-team All Pro at QB.

So how is it that that game never even felt all that competitive? How much better could this team reasonably get? Or are they doomed to keep running into the KC buzz saw, year after year, like they’re the Clyde Drexler Blazers?

I still think Lamar Jackson is a special player, and they obviously have a good team around him. I think it was a mistake to stop running the ball as quickly as they did last Sunday. There are lessons to be learned there. But I think the fans in Baltimore might be more discouraged than those in Detroit.

The Lions

… which is not to say that what happened to the Lions was anything short of devastating. Sigh. Sigh, sigh, sigh.

That was tough to watch. It wasn’t quite 28-3 bad, but it was only one rung down. As soon as that horribly overthrown ball from Purdy bounced off the corner’s facemask and laid up for Brandon Aiyuk to pull it in, I think we all knew what was happening. Then Jahmyr Gibbs promptly fumbled on the next drive and the game slipped away.

Much has been made of coach Dan Campbell mismanaging this game, and those digs are fair, especially the failed run play towards the end of the game that forced them to burn a timeout and all but sealed it up for San Francisco.

Call me crazy, but I do think the Lions can get better. For one thing, they should be very glad to be holding onto offensive coordinator Ben Johnson for another year. For another, an excellent rookie class — including Gibbs, an emerging star in TE Sam LaPorta, and, since he missed his first season, WR Jameson Williams — will come on back with a full year in Johnson’s system.

Goff’s 29, so I’m not hugely worried about a massive drop-off there, nor with 24-year-old All-Pro Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Lions have one more year before they both hit free agency, and DE Aidan Hutchinson is a few years behind them.

In short, they’re in a pretty good spot. They’re young and hungry, and despite some notable screw-ups, Campbell has done more good than bad. He’s got this team believing, and I believe they’ll be in the picture next year too.