Foothold
Wait -- does America soccer now?
It used to be an article of faith — and for some, still is — that soccer would never get to be popular in the U.S. of A.
The reasons ranged, some more sensible than others.
Some questioned how the gameplay would ever resonate with an American audience conditioned to high-scoring action.
From whistling more pass interference in football and pretty much all defense in basketball, to juicing baseballs and downsizing goalie pads, each and every major American sport has made efforts to maximize points on the theory that that’s what fans want.
Soccer, by comparison, operates on the scarcity principle.
When goals are harder to come by, you get this palpable tension in the moments between them, if they ever do come. Failure is an option.
Others argued there was an American exceptionalism angle — taking pride in the obstinance. It’s because the rest of the world so adores football that we insist on calling it soccer.
We even made up our own football to replace it, and that’s our favorite. That’s how much we think everyone else’s version sucks.
Is it even simpler than that, though? Is it just the fact that the top leagues and players in the sport aren’t here?
The basic logistics are one thing. Time zones are a bitch. Primetime overseas can mean odd hours stateside. You know your Saturday’s off to the races when you’re confronted with a Guinness at 7:00am.
But the reason anyone does that is because the serious competition isn’t here in the States. The games worth watching are in Europe, and a lot of Americans aren’t used to that dynamic being flipped.
No one’s quite so global as soccer, but even in the relatively international sports that the U.S. does watch, the NBA, MLB, and NHL are easily the pinnacle of their respective games.
MLS is… decidedly not.
Let The Sunshine In
Though it did get a sizable boost recently.
Lionel Messi is taking his talents to South Beach, choosing Heat Culture over an awe-inspiring offer to play in Saudi Arabia.
He is by far the biggest soccer star ever to play in America. Many consider Argentina’s World Cup hero the greatest footballer in history, full stop.
We have no prior comp for what he is and what he brings to a star-hungry MLS.
Sure, David Beckham was famous when he made his move to Los Angeles.
So too were international stars like Didier Drogba, Andrea Pirlo, David Villa, Kaka, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Wayne Rooney, Gareth Bale, and Thierry Henry.
But none of them were ever Messi, or anything all that close. He is one of one.
Even in the twilight of his career — the only stage at which Messi, and really all of the players we just listed above, would ever consider MLS — he’s going to sell a lot of seats for Inter Miami.
Tickets to see his debut in July have crossed into the Swifties’ Eras Tourittory.
And Messi may have turned down (some) big bucks in the Persian Gulf, but make no mistake, he’s getting paid for his troubles. He’s set to become the highest-salaried athlete in America the moment he takes the field.
It’s not Patrick Mahomes. It’s not Aaron Judge. It’s not Steph Curry.
It’s Messi, and really, the only guy with a chance to catch him anytime soon is an international sensation too: Shohei Ohtani, a good bet to shatter the free-agent ceiling next year.
It’s a trend across sports, as historically American-dominated games welcome more and more foreign-born stars.
The turn in basketball has been dramatic. Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, and Giannis Antetokounmpo just went 1-2-3 in MVP voting this season, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic close behind. Cameroon, Serbia, Greece, Canada, and Slovenia, have a day.
Plus, the biggest international prospect in the sport’s history was drafted last night. I meant most celebrated, but the guy’s 7’5”, so that too. Paris, meet Texas.
Through Ball
With respect to soccer, the trend’s inverted. America’s finally starting to catch up to the world.
I don’t expect Messi to turn MLS into an overnight sensation, but I do expect that he’ll add to its momentum. The league’s expanded at a steady clip over the last decade, now approaching 30 teams from an original ten in 1996.
Those teams’ valuations are steadily rising, too. No MLS team had ever cracked the top 20 until this year, when three did. Messi alone could make Inter Miami the fourth by next year’s edition.
All the while, the USMNT makes its case to be taken more seriously than past efforts have warranted. Strong showings in last year’s World Cup — from a squad full of young players, many of whom play their club ball for Europe’s finest — has American fans more energized by the national team’s prospects than at any time in recent memory.
Soccer is now the fourth-most popular sport among America’s viewing public. It’s miles behind football — as is everything — but it’s right on the heels of baseball and basketball, and growing quickly.
Because its American audience trends so young, it’s not outlandish to think it could catch both of those more entrenched sports in time.
Plus, many of the same young Americans are playing the sport, which helps drive fandom too. Soccer is among the fastest-growing sports at the high school level, too.
G-O-A-L-Oriented
This is happening. From both angles, the longstanding Monroe Doctrine of sports is fading, and it reveals an interesting dynamic.
The encouraging sign for America’s soccer evangelists is that the country is demonstrating an appetite to consume the sport at all, and maybe someday MLS can occupy a bigger share of that plate than it does today.
It’s already surpassing expectations in certain local markets, where new teams have been quickly adopted by eager fanbases. That’s encouraging too.
But even as America gets more into soccer, it’s still not American soccer driving that trend. It’s predominantly Americans watching more European soccer, where the talent, prestige, money, history and thus, fandom, are concentrated.
Late-stage Messi won’t change that dynamic. Not unlike the USMNT, MLS remains the baby brother. They’ve bulked up a little, sure, but they still can’t dunk.
Harsh, I know. But real friends tell you what you need to hear. And we should at least stop to consider the possibility that Americans could get into a sport whose power center isn’t in America. Different? Yeah. Bad? Not that I can see.
For now, it’s nice to be making new friends too, and I suspect you’ll be hearing plenty from them. Hope Messi’s bringing this guy with him: