The FSU Mess
Reminder: sports are entertainment products
It’s not fun to acknowledge this, but let’s be clear: the College Football Playoff selection committee is not concerned with fairness.
That’s not the job. The job is, very simply, to pick the teams that will drive the most interest in the tournament. In effect, that means trying to set up the best games possible.
This doesn’t always work out. It was only 11 months ago that TCU had us wondering if college football might institute a mercy rule when they lost 65-7 to Georgia in the final.
That was not good for the powers that be. That’s a turn-your-TV-off score. Can’t have that. They want those TVs on. Think of the Fansville content!
In pursuit of that directive, though, they’re prone to making controversial calls. Some would go so far as unjust. Dastardly! Dare I say… evil? There are 13 of them. Just pointing that out.
If you haven’t heard by now, there’s been a bit of a kerfuffle over who the high council picked this year, or more specifically, who they didn’t.
The Florida State Seminoles went 13-0 and won their Power Five conference, the ACC. They played and beat two SEC teams in non-conference matchups. Next year, they’d have gotten in automatically, which we’ll get to.
The caveat here is that they won their last two games without their star QB, Jordan Travis, who suffered a horrific broken leg in a throwaway non-conference game against North Alabama in late November.
That is essentially the only reason that ‘Bama Major has now taken FSU’s place.
Any Given Saturday?
You gotta figure that the 13 elders must’ve secretly been hoping FSU would blow it against Louisville, and they kinda almost did. That game was tied 3-3 in the third quarter. The Seminoles averaged 3.4 yards per play, and their quarterback, third-stringer Brock Glenn, went 8/21 for 55 yards and 0 TDs.
Their defense was phenomenal. 6 points allowed, 14 tackles for loss (7 of those being sacks), and a pick. That’s dominant.
But that was against Louisville, and the selection committee didn’t believe they could replicate that playbook against the likes of Alabama, Texas, or Washington. I suspect they’re right.
Which is not to say that this is fair, or anything but an arbitrary judgment. Michigan, for instance, gets by on rock-solid defense, a strong running game, and underwhelming QB play from J.J. McCarthy every week.
And yes, those who point out that plenty of previous national champions have won the whole damn thing without their opening-week starting QB have a point.
History lesson, for context:
2014 Ohio State, who won their last three games with third-stringer Cardale Jones after they lost Braxton Miller before the season even started and then their starter for the whole regular season, J.T. Barrett, in the regular season finale against Michigan
2017 Alabama, who benched Jalen Hurts at halftime of the national championship game, which remains wild, and then watched freshman Tua Tagovailoa pull off the comeback over Georgia
Then they mention 2018 Clemson and 2021 Georgia, who I treat with an asterisk, given Trevor Lawrence and Stetson Bennett did end up starting the overwhelming majority of their respective teams’ games.
Here’s the difference, though, with all due respect to Glenn and FSU’s first backup, Tate Rodemaker. You already got Glenn’s stat line. Here’s Rodemaker’s against Florida: 12/25, for 134 yards and 0 TDs.
Cardale Jones, who’s the closest comp for this situation, played well when he got his chance. He didn’t light the world on fire — Ezekiel Elliott had the star turn, shoutout STL — but he was the MVP in the Big 12 Championship game, he topped 240 yards in that game and the next two, and he threw for six total TDs while the Buckeyes put up 40+ every time out.
Neither Glenn nor Rodemaker did anything near that, not even the two of them combined. That does make a difference.
Apples & Orange Bowls
Now, FSU is relegated to the lowly Orange Bowl, where they’ll play once-mighty Georgia. After losing a close SEC final to Alabama, the Bulldogs fell all the way to #6 after holding down the #1 spot all season (further evidence that this is pretty arbitrary; I have trouble believing Georgia isn’t one of the four best teams in the country, even now, but timing counts).
This line will probably move a little in the weeks to come, but right now, the spread is -13.5. For those who don’t gamble, bless your heart, but that means Georgia’s favored by about two touchdowns. That’s a sizable spread.
That’s not to say the game doesn’t end up being close, but the oracles of Vegas don’t think this will be a fair fight. I imagine the spread would’ve been similar against Alabama.
I take all of that to mean the following two things:
It was wrong that an undefeated Power 5 team didn’t get a chance to compete for the national title, and…
The committee made an ultimately defensible decision based on their interests, as opposed to the differing values held by everybody else.
The Seminoles deserved a shot. Granted. Agreed. Glenn/Rodemaker could have done a Cardale Jones impersonation. Why not? Who’s to say.
Now we’ll never know, and that does suck, for them and for those who look for justice in their sports leagues.
But this is not about who deserves what. There’s nothing normative about it (Philosophy 207, stand up!).
This is about viewers, and even though Florida State has plenty of its own fans, a potential blowout wasn’t going to be as valuable to them as getting Alabama in there.
Back In My Day
If you’ll recall the olden days, college football used to have a worse miscarriage of justice problem than this. At least now, we get a four-team field to decide the champion. Back in my day, a group of dudes just picked who won that year, no showdown necessary, and that was… frustrating.
But college football didn’t change their ways out of a realization that they weren’t being fair. They changed it when they finally got wise to all the money they were leaving on the table. Every year, they were willingly forgoing the game that everyone wanted to see. That’s bad for business.
That’s why they changed the first time, and it’s why they’ll change again next year by widening the field to a 12-team playoff rather than four, which — for my money — is how we should’ve been doing this for a while now.
If that were in place this year, then not only would Florida State be right in the thick of the chase, but so would a bunch of two-loss teams like Missouri (LFG), Penn State, Ole Miss, and Oklahoma.
And then the complaints would be coming from 13th-ranked LSU instead. They’d be quieter, and the case wouldn’t be as strong.
But the complaints would be there, because the complaints will always be there when the field is picked arbitrarily and someone gets left out.
Them’s the breaks. But isn’t that the best part about sports, everybody?
There’s always next year.
Also, This
Believe it or not, all of this FSU stuff was not even close to the biggest story in college sports this week. That’d be the announcement coming down from Charlie Baker and the NCAA, suggesting — in part — the creation of a new tier in Division I where schools can directly pay athletes. Remember that podcast docuseries I said I was working on? I still am, and as it happens, I now have some updates to make.
I’ll have more to say about this later, but we can start with this: if you’ve already read someone describe this as possibly the most dramatic shift in the history of college sports, it’s too early to tell where any of this will actually land — this is an opening gambit of a proposal, nothing more yet — but I don’t disagree. It’s that big.
Juan Soto to the Bronx, eh? It’s really something to see a future Hall of Famer still this young — he just turned 25 — play for his third team in four years, and he’s not even the big fish. Think we might get a decision from Shohei Ohtani before next week’s post. The Stove is Hot, people!
I know they’re not in the IST, but man. Nikola Jokic, who — super important to note — is nicknamed Big Honey, was leading the NBA in points, assists, and rebounds for a few days this week. He remains in the top two/three in everything.
What’s so singular about him is how he’s the ultimate unicorn not just in his skill set but in his approach to the game. He’s gotten in far better shape, but he’s no gym rat. He’s not an overpowering athlete, at least not in the way we’re used to thinking of it. He flies in the face of everyone out there who’s ever said “Mamba Mentality” is the key to success. I want to be clear — this is by no means a knock, but he clearly doesn’t live his vocation every second of every day in order to pursue perfection. He reads and plays the game with a preternatural feel, and I’m not in that locker room, so I can’t speak to his process, but it seems obvious that he’s not some kind of Tom Brady, Michael Jordan sort of obsessive. He’s the best anyways, and that is a really fascinating challenge to long-held theories of greatness.
Jon Rahm! You little devil, you! After many strident promises he would never, he’s off to join the LIV Tour. If you’re asking yourself — wait, didn’t they already combine with the PGA Tour? Isn’t that whole blood feud supposed to be over now? Sort of. Thing is, they said they would, but they still haven’t come to an agreement, and a move like this injects some fresh uncertainty into what that all might look like. The deadline’s at the end of the year. Tick tock.