The Pascal Siakam Trade
And why first-round picks are a devalued currency
After his former teammate OG Anunoby, you could make a case that Pascal Siakam had been among the most frequently Trade Machine’d guys in the league. People have been waiting for him to move for a long time now.
This week, we learned where he’ll be going. It’s Indiana, to join a young fun Pacers team and solidify their standing as a tier-three title contender. They’re not the Celtics or Nuggets. They’re not the Bucks or Sixers. They’re probably not even the Clippers.
But this team is really good. There’s no reason they can’t get the 4 seed in the East. Tyrese Haliburton is knocking on top 10 in the league, and the Pacers just added another top 40-50 guy in Siakam, who also happens to be a great positional fit. He’ll help them on both ends, and he can play to their up-tempo style. I’m excited to see this team come together.
That all said — I care less about the literal basketball aspect of this than I do the basketball transaction side. Allow me to illustrate this with an old-timey aphorism that I don’t mean.
First-round picks used to mean something in this country.
Siakam is really good. I’m not disputing that. A few years ago, though, the lid came off with respect to the future first-rounders that GMs were willing to deal.
Anthony Davis, Paul George, James Harden, and Russell Westbrook all moved for three firsts in the last five years. More recently, the Bucks sent out three firsts (counting two pick swaps) for Damian Lillard. Before them, in what was a more isolated incident at the time, Dwight Howard went to the Lakers in 2012. Whoops. That might explain the isolated incident part.
All of those guys will stroll right into the Hall of Fame. We can have a separate conversation about whether the NBA should tighten its criteria a smidge, but as things stand now, all of those guys are 100% no-doubters.
Pascal Siakam, while very good, is not. He’s made two All-Star teams. Every other player I listed, at the time of their trade, had made at least six. Unlike all of those other players, Siakam’s never finished in the top 5 in MVP voting, nor has he ever been close. He came 10th once in 2020. That’s been it.
Again, he’s really, really good. He’s one of the best player-development success stories in recent memory, second only to his former teammate Kawhi Leonard. I love me some Spicy P. Dude rocks. He’s just not the level of great that we’ve historically seen move in that caliber of deal.
Doing The Math
So what gives? Is Indiana’s GM getting ripped off here? After all, the Knicks got OG Anunoby without shipping out even one first-rounder.
I don’t know Chad Buchanan personally, but he seems nice. Has he been fleeced? Should I tell him? Can we initiate a return? Do we need our receipt? Someone help! Representative!
While we wait for customer service — I’m sure our call is important to them — let me step in here. As the venerable Tom Haberstroh put it this week, all first-rounders are not the same.
That’s a fact, and yet there’s something opaque about their value. They’re not settled assets. They’re sort of like the call option of pro sports (a pick swap being an even more apt comparison).
Getting three first-round picks is a big haul. It certainly sounds impressive. But there’s a reason that GMs have started getting a little loose with it. They’re not always the coveted prizes they may seem at face value.
First, unlike the NFL or MLB, it’s much rarer in the NBA to unearth a star player outside of the lottery, meaning the top 14 picks. A first-round pick outside those first 14 just isn’t as valuable as it would be in the NFL.
Second, there’s a lot of variance even within the lottery. Obviously, the 14th pick is not as valuable as the 1st. I haven’t run the numbers — so if anyone has an authoritative answer on this, by all means — but my sense is there’s a sizable drop-off as early as the 3rd pick, sometimes even the 2nd. Worse yet, it keeps cascading on down. You’re not guaranteed much of anything from 7 or 8 on.
Third, we’re dealing with a lottery. Even if you think you’ve got it made, and the team whose pick you own is really bad, you’re not guaranteed to pick in the top 2 or 3. Far from it. The best odds you can get for the top pick is 14%. Again, this isn’t the NFL. It’s not guaranteed, and you can get screwed.
Fourth, let’s say you do get lucky. You get that high pick. Congrats. Guess what? Even though that’s where you need to be to maximize your odds, it’s still incredibly unlikely that you’ll draft a star player with that pick.
Markelle Fultz went #1 in 2017. Marvin Bagley went #2 in 2018. RJ Barrett went #3 in 2019. James Wiseman went #2 in 2020. Jalen Green went #2 in 2021. You need it to be a good year, and then you need to pick the right guy, and then that guy needs to keep improving, healthy, out of trouble, committed to basketball, etc. That’s a lot of variables.
Remember, all those guys we listed earlier were perennial All-NBA guys. To a man, first-ballot Hall of Famers. None of the guys I just listed above have ever made an All-Star team, and it doesn’t look hugely likely right now that any of them will.
And again! That’s at the high end. The odds of the pick you traded for ending up in even that zone is very, very unlikely.
Take It Easy
If I’ve done my job, then you’re seeing my point.
Three-first rounders — i.e. the vague promise of yet-undefined potential — sounds a lot better than what those deals tend to actually net you.
I think it’s fair to say that the Anthony Davis trade was the biggest haul out of all those swaps. The Pelicans got a ton of good young players — with Brandon Ingram turning out to be the gem of the bunch — as well as three firsts. It was a historic deal, and a lot of people thought the Lakers gave up way too much.
And look, that could still turn out to be true. The well hasn’t run dry yet. The Pelicans can either pick for the Lakers this year or defer to 2025. That could be juicy.
But let’s review who the Pelicans have picked so far. They got the 4th pick in 2019, but since they were already taking Zion Williamson with their own pick, they traded down and drafted Jaxson Hayes 8th, Nickeil Alexander-Walker 17th, and Didi Louzada 35th. None of them are still on the team.
As part of that trade-down deal, they got a 2021 second-rounder, which they used on Herb Jones. Good pick. Rotation guy.
Next, they got the 8th pick in the 2022 draft, which they used on Dyson Daniels. TBD.
Any of these names jumping off the page for you? No? Correct. They’re not. Because it’s really, really hard to find true needle-shifting difference-makers in the NBA. You can get a lot of shots and still miss every last time. Basketball’s fickle like that.
Going back to the Pacers, they’re not even giving up good shots. The trade in question, per ESPN:
Two of the first-round picks going to the Raptors are for 2024 -- Indiana's own selection and the lesser of a Utah/Houston/LA Clippers/Oklahoma City pick -- while the third is for 2026 (from Indiana), it was announced.
Indiana’s not going to be in the lottery this year. They’ll probably be in the 20s. I’d project something similar come 2026. Even that second pick might not amount to much. Houston’s got the worst record of the four, and they’re a respectable 19-21.
That’s… not much! They’re not “mortgaging the future.”
As for the Raptors, Bruce Brown could easily turn out to be a better addition than anyone they end up drafting. He’s a productive rotation guy who just played an instrumental role in winning a title. That would be a great outcome for any of those picks. Great.
Let this all be a reality check. Let’s relax about the picks.
Also, This
As long as we’re talking about trades, man was I (and, in my defense, everyone else) wrong about this Harden thing. At least for now, the Bearded One is happy, and he is ballin’. The Clippers have been fantastic. They’ll carry a staggering amount of postseason baggage with them into the summer, but they’ve won 23 of their last 30. This looks legit.
It’s great to get another Bills-Chiefs matchup in January, but it’s a shame that it’s coming with both of these teams so obviously reduced from the peak we saw a few years ago. Maybe we get a classic anyways. With Allen and Mahomes out there, you can’t count it out.
Shocked to see the Cowboys are sticking with McCarthy. Somebody explain that one to me.
Diamond Sports Group has found a lifeline to get out of bankruptcy, in a little update to a story we covered months ago. Its name is Amazon. Heard of it? The Everything Store is getting involved, people.
We’ll check back in with the Australian Open next week, but friendly reminder of where the needle is in tennis right now: either Djokovic adds to his third act, or Alcaraz adds to his first. Yes, yes. There are other players. But let’s be real, that’s what we’re watching for.
And no, don’t be ridiculous — none of those players are American.
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