OKC and the Playoff Experience Paradox
We fall for it every time. Every year, in every sport, we do the same thing. The team at the heart of the argument isn’t always this good — this year’s Oklahoma City Thunder are quite possibly Sam Presti’s masterpiece — but the general script holds.
“They haven’t done it before.” The implication being, they’re not about to do it now. Sure, the [insert upstart team] have been great all year. But they haven’t faced the bright lights of the postseason, and when they run into an experienced team who’s been through those battles, the new guys will wilt under the pressure.
That kind of thinking is a reflection of how we see the world, sports included. If we’ve seen you do it before, then we’re inclined to think you can do it again. And moreover, if we haven’t seen you do it, then we’re not going to be convinced you can until you do.
Needless to say, that doesn’t make any sense. It doesn’t allow for any variance or uncertainty. If that were true, then the same team would win the whole thing year after year and no one new would ever come and take it from them. That just isn’t how it works. Which, good.
In that world, there would be no such thing as a rising star. We would not get the SGAs and Anthony Edwards, the Cade Cunninghams and Tyrese Haliburtons, and, dare I say, the Paolo Bancheros staking out more territory in this year’s playoffs, testing their limits and raising their ceilings. Some of them have already sent home some veteran winners in this league. Others are challenging them, proving they might have it in ‘em very soon.
In all those cases, though, there’s a collective failure to seriously consider the possibility that those stars might be leading real contenders already. And, to be fair, in every case but the first, that’s almost definitely right. (And maybe the second, but that’s as far as I’m willing to go with the Wolves right now.)
And so it is the first case, that of SGA and his merry band of ThunderCats1, that I’d like to talk about today. Because this team is friggin’ loaded, and they’re coming for all y’all.
They finished with a record of 68-14, good for sixth in league history, battling some fairly significant injuries throughout the year. They still won a record 54 of those games by 10 points or more, which helped them finish with a record-high point differential of 12.9, breaking a record that had stood since the Wilt Chamberlain/Jerry West Lakers of 1971-72.
They have a superstar in SGA who is about as dominant as any lead guard we’ve ever seen, legends included. (And by the way? Annual reminder that this dude was once traded for Miles Bridges on draft night, and then later as the ‘young core’ of a big ol’ picks package for Paul George. One of the crazier transformations in league history, legends included. Some Kawhi Leonard shit.)
His Thunder have the best net rating in the league this year, owing to their third-ranked offense and top-ranked defense. Alex Caruso, the Bald Eagle himself, singlehandedly put the Grizzlies out of their misery this week, and that guy might not even be their best defensive player. They can play big, in a twin towers look with Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren, or they can play small, with a seemingly endless rotation of tenacious wings and guards, all of whom are at worst respectable shooters. Jalen Williams is the best of that bunch, but they legitimately go ten deep. This time of year, that tightens up to eight, but they could. They’re rock goddamn solid.
And let’s not overstate the narrative, either. It’s incumbent on me to point out that the Thunder are the betting favorites to win the title. Vegas sees this pretty clearly, just like they saw the Celtics last year. (At that point, Boston was in a similar position to OKC this year — very talented, easily the best regular-season team, historic statistical profile. And yet the Celtics were doubted by a great many pundits [like this one!] who thought they’d shown a penchant for wilting in the playoffs one too many times for their taste.)
There’s every possibility that those two teams are the last two standing this year, which would put this whole dichotomy into pretty stark relief. Jerks like me couldn’t believe in the Celtics’ ‘winning mentality’ or whatever until they won, which, I will concede, is silly. Why couldn’t they? They proved me wrong.
Now that they have, we’re collectively inclined to believe they’d have an edge over the Thunder, even if the Celtics have been a shakier team all this year. We’re inclined to believe that since they’re older and more seasoned, they’re the likeliest team to win. They have talent, continuity, pedigree. You could do worse than pick Boston.
But that’s if Boston even makes it there. ‘Cause you know who else is really really good and has been doubted all year, along similar lines as the Thunder? Donovan Mitchell and the Cavs. They embarrassed the Heat this week. That got dark.
For both the Cavs and Thunder — especially the Thunder, with their treasure trove of remaining picks — the future looks bright. But what about the present? That’s looking pretty damn bright too. So don’t be surprised if one of the ‘too early’ squads makes their way through the field. I’ve seen it happen before.2
🏈 The full extent of the Shedeur Sanders slide was not apparent last Friday. I think a lot of us figured that he’d be going in the 2nd round, or maybe the 3rd. I did not have the 5th on my board, but everybody else sure did. I don’t have a piping hot take on this situation, and I broadly agree with what everyone seems to think happened here. His dad seems like a real pain in the ass, and Shedeur himself isn’t so talented that he could overcome that on top of legitimate concerns about his athleticism and overall talent. If you’re really really good, you don’t fall like that no matter how annoying you are. Teams don’t buy it. They could all be wrong, but I kinda doubt it. Still, I hope he gets a half-decent shot to prove them mistaken.
🩵 I am also in complete and utter agreement with everyone who’s pointed out that the above was not the most awkward story in football this past weekend, as that would be the seemingly toxic relationship shared by Miss Maine hopeful Jordon Hudson and renowned fashion icon Bill Belichick. I don’t know the ins and outs of this, but I think it’s worth pointing out that CBS Sunday Morning isn’t exactly ProPublica. I don’t think they were playing hardball. So for them to have been sufficiently perturbed to air footage of Hudson being annoying, you gotta figure. She was pretty friggin’ annoying.
was right this week to point out that Belichick’s conduct stands to impact a lot of people, mainly the football players at UNC, so we have to take seriously whatever possibility there is that something’s amiss here. I’m not quite sure yet, but uh… monitoring. Weird.🎰 And finally, I will tentatively echo Dan Wetzel’s praise for the NCAA in ESPN this week for penning a nifty lil deal with a third-party firm that will supply college sports data to sportsbooks on one condition. In order to access the data, sportsbooks will be required to not offer individual prop bets on college athletes, something the NCAA had been very keen on banning. I’d been skeptical they’d succeed in that effort, let alone quickly, but this sure looks like a W on paper. Not bad, Chuck.
It is crazy how young and skinny Curry looks in the above video. Unbelievable.
I call playoff experience the "Rudy Gobert Corollary" (which may need a new name after his most recent dominant game). Essentially, playoff offense and defense is a different beast. Teams have time to prepare a game plan for you, so any weaknesses are magnified.
Rudy Gobert is an example of this. A DPOY that can be played off the floor at times because what he struggles with (defending in space/on the perimeter) can be exploited with the right gameplan.
Point being that you can make solid assumptions about what your weaknesses are, but you don't know how bad they'll be until you get to the playoffs. You also don't know how well players will adjust when their strengths are taken away and their favorite spots on the floor are harder to get to.
None of this means that the Thunder *can't* do these things. They have the personnel to mitigate most matchup problems. It just means that the uncertainty is a lot higher until they prove they can do those things. It's the reason that playoff experience is a relevant factor in most advanced NBA stats.