Wait -- Are There 12 Good Teams in College Football?

And, hint: does it matter that there aren't?

We’re breaking all the headline rules lately. First asking questions, and now the em dash? The same em dash from the All Fields origin story? Have I no shame?

I do not, and neither does the sport of college football, which has — yes, this does feel like the appropriate adverb here — shamelessly pursued a lucrative playoff system for years now to finally see it come to fruition this season.

Just to be clear, I’m not against that. As a fan, I’ve long thought actual playoffs would be more compelling than a series of random bowl games, the history of said games notwithstanding. Growing up, the whole sport felt needlessly arbitrary. This is a positive step in a better direction, as far as I’m concerned. I’m less fond of what all happened along the way — some of the more egregious conference consolidation, for instance — but the destination seems justifiable.

In just a few weeks now, we’ll have an expanded field of 12 teams going at it for the national championship. The best of the best, with no — or at least fewer — glaring omissions of a plausible champion. If you want to win, you have to make it through the gauntlet. Metal.

For those who aren’t aware, it was a big step for college football to even go to the 4-team playoff a decade ago. That was also out of step with the sport’s history. This step is bigger, and it comes at a kind of funny time.

Funny how? Like a clown, say? Sort of, yeah. What’s funny about this season is that everyone kinda sucks this year. Not only are we short of 12 really good teams, which will almost definitely be the case every year, I’m not sure we have 4.

Oregon’s the lone undefeated team, and they’ve had a couple of close calls. Georgia needed 8 OTs to avoid a third loss on the year, which makes Texas’ one loss look a little worse too. Alabama already has their third loss, so good for them. Miami probably should too, but they’ll settle for a humbling L to Syracuse last week. If you didn’t already see what happened to Ohio State, then I can’t help you. That result didn’t help Penn State’s claim to excellence. And remember when Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois? Me too. And don’t even get me started on Indiana.

Suffice to say: this is a deeply flawed group. The QB talent is less than stellar, and we’ve got a lot of leaky defenses up there on the big board. Bad combo!

Why is this happening? Some of it’s down to luck I’m sure, and the natural ebb and flow of the talent pool in college. Some of it is friendly fire — teams in the expanded Big 10 and SEC now have to play each other during the year, which is going to make it a lot harder to run the table than it’s been in years past. Beyond those factors, it’s tough to ignore the ways in which this can be chalked up to the ongoing NIL/transfer portal revolution that’s taken over the sport.

And let me state at the outset that I don’t have the hard numbers nor the expertise in crunching them to say this with any quantitative authority, so I’ll be the first to admit that this is an exercise in guesstimation.

But! But. Can we really be at all surprised that a higher amount of roster turnover, as well as a general thinning of depth at top programs, would make those top programs a little worse? Guys in the past would’ve happily sat on the bench at Alabama for two years, waiting for their chance to start. But if you’re a backup in Tuscaloosa, you’re probably a starter elsewhere. Combine the newfound opportunity to leave with a financial incentive to do so, and you have a combustible mix.

Is that bad for the sport? It’s an interesting question. Is a little more bloodshed along the way a bad thing? Am I overreacting to the fact that teams that would’ve finished with one loss four years ago now have two or three? Possibly.

That nods to an age-old question of sports fandom. Do we want dominance, or do we want chaotic slugfests? I tend to think we want a mix — whatever amount of the latter doesn’t totally preclude the former — but that’s just me.

It’s not good for the historic blue blood programs — who still have the upper hand in recruiting and the portal, we should note — but nonetheless have this revolving door to deal with.

It’s good for players to have a high degree of control over where they play, granting that it might not be as good for guys’ development as players if they up and switch schools every year. But since it’s a small group of pro-bound players anyways, isn’t that still overridden by the ability for athletes like, I don’t know, former UNLV QB Matthew Sluka, to cash in on the highest stage they’ll probably ever get to play on?

It’s complicated all the way down, and I’m on the record with my feelings on this to the tune of six episodes. I’ll go along with what’s good for the sport to a certain extent, but if the underlying enterprise is quite literally illegal — and I contend that the prior, recent versions of top-flight college football were — then that can’t be the first concern. You are entitled to make the best product you can, of course, but you should start by obeying the law. Sorry, dudes. Them’s the rules.

As for the playoff, I’ll add for the record that this is just the first time college football is running into something that pops up in pro leagues all the time. A wide-open title race tends to happen when there are no ‘dominant’ teams, and that’s not necessarily a bad thing. It’s exciting, right? Every season’s different in that way. The talent pool ebbs and flows, just as it’s doing in college right now.

The real measure of the inaugural 12-team playoff will probably be how it ends, not how it starts. But I hereby give myself permission to giggle — chortle, even — at the state of the powerhouse programs, one of which will still probably hoist the trophy when it’s all said and done.

What’s fun about this is the very real chance that they might not! Turns out, I like the slugfest approach. Put ‘em up, folks.

🏈 Bit of an aside to the piece above, but if you’re asking me — before we find out what happens with Clemson — I’d probably give that last spot to Ole Miss. Narrowly over Miami, and a little less narrowly over South Carolina, BYU, and Alabama. It’s just how I feel! Sue me.

🏀 The NBA Cup is fun. I’ve been critical of the NBA lately, but I think this has been a worthwhile attempt at doing something different that goes against our typical sporting tastes stateside. Yes, it’s commercially motivated, but so is much of what professional sports leagues do. I’ll continue to welcome attempts at creating intrigue, especially when it doesn’t harm much of anything to try it out.

⚾ On the subject of manufactured intrigue! I still need to refine my thoughts on Rob Manfred’s Golden At-Bat idea. My initial take is that it doesn’t offend my sensibilities quite as much as a lot of people I see out there, but I get the pushback, and I’d say — tentatively — that I agree. Not sure about this one, Rob.

🏉 I’m a week late on this, but South Africa’s Pieter-Steph du Toit (find me a more South African name than that) won his second World Rugby men’s player of the year award, adding to his historic resume. His injury journey alone is a story worth familiarizing yourself with if you haven’t. Dude almost lost his leg. Then he won everything there was to win. Twice.