"He was clearly better in O’Connell’s system than he’s ever been anywhere else."
This is not true. We can argue about the explanatory power of 181 plays, but Sam posted a better EPA/Play on a better CPOE against better average defensive opposition with worse receiving weapons in his six starts at the end of the 2022 season in Carolina than he did with Minnesota, in the Steve Wilks-Ben McAdoo system (a phrase that has never, ever been said before). Some will argue that because it was only 181 plays, it just doesn't count, but I think it's enough to at least remove the 'clear' from your quote up there.
Regardless, seeing these results from the end of 2022, I (as somebody who is the biggest Sam Darnold booster on the internet) thought Sam's 2024 season was actually a mild disappointment. I thought he could improve much more than this (or improve at all) over his 2022 Carolina results, but regardless. He did just prove he can be a top ten starter over a whole season, already having proven he could do it over six games, which begs the question of what is a top ten starter worth?
Trevor Lawrence has never been as good as Sam Darnold in 2024, and he got the big contract. Justin Herbert same thing, and he got the big contract. I think this is supreme confirmation bias for Sam to have to settle for anything other than the top the QB money he deserves, and if people tell me that it's only a 23 game sample, I would kindly ask them (as Substack's preeminent Jaguars fan) how many top ten quality games Trevor Lawrence has had. The answer is a lot less than 23. I assure you. It's quite close to zero actually.
As far as calibre of football player, Sam Darnold is in a different league than Trevor Lawrence, and I think everybody can accept that. The issue with Sam is that he'd have to find a team to give him the money, when the perpetually idiotic ones like Cleveland, Jacksonville, Los Angeles Chargers, Atlanta, and Washington are all tied up at the moment.
Sam Darnold is a lot like Geno Smith. Trevor Lawrence has never been as good as Geno Smith either, and comparing the contracts you would never get that impression. I feel like Sam is going to find himself in that same situation. It's not fair, but it's what it is.
With you on much of this. I take your point that he'd already shown something in Carolina, but I'm one of those people who think the six starts there (for, as you note, a pretty bad team) don't count for as much as this whole winning season in Minnesota. It shouldn't. I think that's appropriately reflected by Darnold's market right now as compared to the one he had then.
Totally agree that Lawrence and Herbert are, to date, wishful thinkers' quarterbacks. I'll be curious to see where Darnold's deal lands, and I suspect you're right that it'll be more in the Geno Smith range. I'm just glad that's more than he ever would've gotten had McCarthy never gotten injured and Darnold remained stuck, signing prove-it deals as a typecast backup. It's hard to break out of that cycle, and he made a lot out of his chance.
"He was clearly better in O’Connell’s system than he’s ever been anywhere else."
This is not true. We can argue about the explanatory power of 181 plays, but Sam posted a better EPA/Play on a better CPOE against better average defensive opposition with worse receiving weapons in his six starts at the end of the 2022 season in Carolina than he did with Minnesota, in the Steve Wilks-Ben McAdoo system (a phrase that has never, ever been said before). Some will argue that because it was only 181 plays, it just doesn't count, but I think it's enough to at least remove the 'clear' from your quote up there.
Regardless, seeing these results from the end of 2022, I (as somebody who is the biggest Sam Darnold booster on the internet) thought Sam's 2024 season was actually a mild disappointment. I thought he could improve much more than this (or improve at all) over his 2022 Carolina results, but regardless. He did just prove he can be a top ten starter over a whole season, already having proven he could do it over six games, which begs the question of what is a top ten starter worth?
Trevor Lawrence has never been as good as Sam Darnold in 2024, and he got the big contract. Justin Herbert same thing, and he got the big contract. I think this is supreme confirmation bias for Sam to have to settle for anything other than the top the QB money he deserves, and if people tell me that it's only a 23 game sample, I would kindly ask them (as Substack's preeminent Jaguars fan) how many top ten quality games Trevor Lawrence has had. The answer is a lot less than 23. I assure you. It's quite close to zero actually.
As far as calibre of football player, Sam Darnold is in a different league than Trevor Lawrence, and I think everybody can accept that. The issue with Sam is that he'd have to find a team to give him the money, when the perpetually idiotic ones like Cleveland, Jacksonville, Los Angeles Chargers, Atlanta, and Washington are all tied up at the moment.
Sam Darnold is a lot like Geno Smith. Trevor Lawrence has never been as good as Geno Smith either, and comparing the contracts you would never get that impression. I feel like Sam is going to find himself in that same situation. It's not fair, but it's what it is.
With you on much of this. I take your point that he'd already shown something in Carolina, but I'm one of those people who think the six starts there (for, as you note, a pretty bad team) don't count for as much as this whole winning season in Minnesota. It shouldn't. I think that's appropriately reflected by Darnold's market right now as compared to the one he had then.
Totally agree that Lawrence and Herbert are, to date, wishful thinkers' quarterbacks. I'll be curious to see where Darnold's deal lands, and I suspect you're right that it'll be more in the Geno Smith range. I'm just glad that's more than he ever would've gotten had McCarthy never gotten injured and Darnold remained stuck, signing prove-it deals as a typecast backup. It's hard to break out of that cycle, and he made a lot out of his chance.
Thanks for reading!
And the golfers will be ready when you come for us. 💕 ⛳️